JOHANNESBURG, 20 June 2008 (IRIN) - With global high food prices apparently here to stay, economists in South Africa warn that despite a bumper maize harvest, worldwide demand and soaring agricultural input prices mean that even maize-meal, the country's staple, could be off the menu.
Food prices in South Africa have risen by 15.7 percent since April 2007, and maize-meal - a stiff porridge, the starch of choice - had gone up by over 25 percent, Patrick Kelly, Consumer Price Index Manager at Statistics South Africa (STATSSA), told IRIN.
John Rook, Programme Manager of the Regional Hunger and Vulnerability Programme in South Africa, told IRIN that when over half the family income was spent on food, even a slight price hike on maize-meal could really hurt.
"The poorest are hardest hit; they spend the highest portion of their income on food," he said, and with meagre budgets already overstretched, "they can't keep on absorbing food price rises."
According to the latest Income and Expenditure survey by STATSSA, income deciles 1, 2 and 3 - each representing 10 percent of the total South African population, starting with the poorest - respectively spend 80, 45 and 36 percent of their income on food.
A year ago, one kg of maize-meal cost around US$0.60, now it sells for $0.75. Average income in the lowest 10 percent of the population is less than $19 per month, and the average consumption of maize-meal is 10kg per person per month, making the implications of a price rise painfully clear: for 4.7 million South Africans one year ago, just over 30 percent of income would have been spent on maize-meal, compared to nearly 40 percent today.
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