The evidence is already plain to see. We all know Nigeria is huge, complex and dynamic, a society whose people have been held back by problems like corruption, mal-administration and civil war. Massive gaps exist between supply and demand, with broken-down infrastructure on one side and consumers desperate for innovation and solutions on the other.
However, government initiatives in a number of areas have allowed entrepreneurs to bridge the gap; sometimes creating a veritable stampede.
From HKLM's perspective, the advent of cell phones in the Nigerian market was the trigger point. The first real player licensed was MTN, a scalable multinational, able to throw a lot of money at brand-building and marketing communication. That drove the market as a whole and was quickly followed by HKLM's client, Glo, a Nigerian company started by a local entrepreneur. Suddenly, we had a marketing war between two aggressive players; since then the market has been able to expand to accommodate a few more.
In itself, that's impressive enough. But consider how the lives of Nigeria's consumers have changed. From a country with a dilapidated and virtually useless fixed line telephone system, it has been transformed almost overnight into one with upwards of 25 million mobile subscribers.
No longer do people have to take three-hour taxi journeys to hook up with family, for example. They stay in touch by mobile. Traders are linked, new markets created - all in this remarkably rapid period of time. We're witnessing what occurs when the power of the brand is linked with innovative solutions and hungry consumers.
Something similar has been happening in Nigeria's banking sector. Until recently, consumers were serviced - or should that be under-serviced? - by some 85 different banks, many of them the small Mom-and-Pop variety.
The Central Bank launched an initiative to force consolidation and recapitalisation and the sector has shrunk to around 25 much larger players. Just like in the cell phone space, there has been very aggressive marketing communication activity and sophisticated brand building, followed by swift consumer uptake. ATMs, online transactions and bank cards are brand-new; savvy consumers are moving there quickly.
Nigeria is now being wired for further expansion, literally. After all, if the branding revolution has happened in cellphones and banking, why shouldn't it happen again and again elsewhere, in other parts of the economy? What makes this such a significant opportunity and why I use words like 'enormous' and 'hyperdrive' is because the Internet has the potential to cause the next step to take place at truly breakneck speed.
All along Africa's west coast, very big undersea cables are being plugged in, adding extremely significant amounts of high-speed bandwidth. Connect those 'fat pipes' to the dynamism and aspirations of Nigeria's consumers, along with their already rapid acceptance of new technologies like cell phones, and the potential exists for dramatic, blisteringly fast shifts in the market.
Retail is another space to watch. It has the same upside potential: brand builders on one side of the equation and hungry consumers on the other. More and more shopping centres are going up, targeting people whose retail experience has been limited to buying in street markets.
Imagine what happens when these consumers make the jump into top-end brand temples. I'm not certain that there won't be problems with crowd control!
International ad agencies are already beginning to sense the gap and the triggering of economic activity over the last seven to eight years has certainly driven the local communications industry, forcing it to grow, to become more sophisticated and to consider international partners. The London and New York agencies see Africa as a definite growth space and are moving quickly in this regard, mirroring the efforts of the South African agencies. Can you afford to wait? As you ponder that question, think back to the start of the cellphone revolution in Nigeria - when the other large South African cellular supplier was forced to sit on the sidelines. It missed the boat entirely, never to re-embark. After all, there is only one opportunity called Nigeria!
